You're definitely not alone in your skepticism. If we look at historical trends, there’s a clear pattern when alt season narratives start heating up. During previous cycles, Bitcoin dominance often played a crucial role in signaling the true health of the market. A strong Bitcoin dominance, like we’re seeing now, typically indicates that speculative money hasn’t fully shifted to altcoins. In fact, in past bull runs, altcoins only truly flourished when Bitcoin's dominance began to decrease, signaling that investor confidence had spread out into alt assets.
Moreover, macro conditions have always been a significant factor in whether gains are sustainable. We’ve seen in previous cycles that when there's too much speculative capital chasing low-cap altcoins, it can quickly lead to sharp corrections. 2007’s market rally before the 2018 crash was a prime example of how a flood of capital into small, speculative coins led to overvaluation, only to be followed by painful corrections. History tends to repeat itself, and it’s often after a sharp correction that the market finds more solid ground for sustainable growth.